The time leading up to our trip to Cuba was full of uncertainty. I felt like I was slowly marching toward a closing door. You may remember in 2014, Obama loosened up travel restrictions with Cuba and airlines could then fly directly from the United States. Under those rules, there were 12 allowable reasons to…
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In the week that we’ve been back from Cuba, I’ve had a difficult time answering, “How was it?” There are more obvious ways to describe Cuba as a beautiful country and the people as warm and welcoming. But what I took away from the adventure were the more nuanced observations. For those interested in our…
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Every election in my adulthood has been about jobs and which candidate can deliver the most jobs. At least, it has been primarily about this among various other economic measurements and notions (income inequality, minimum wage, etc.). The only competing issue in my adulthood has been national security. Other issues have also been immigration and…
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In the previous article we observed that if the concern is that empires last only around 200 years, America is only 71 years into its empire era. To be clear, I personally don’t think that this 200 year observation is anything to rely on as an expectation. It would be absurd to rely on this…
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From time to time, people will reference how empires usually last around 200 years and thus infer that America has come to its empire life expectancy. If our country’s birthday was July 4, 1776, this year we turned 240 years old as an empire. For the moment, I’ll concede the point about whether or not…
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Those of you who know me, know that I love to climb mountains. In Colorado there are 53 peaks above 14,000 feet and I have climbed 29 of them. One thing I’ve learned in doing this is that when you are climbing an unknown mountain, it’s important to keep your expectations calm. Often as you…
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Back in April 2016, the market became the 2nd longest bull market in history. The market continues to march upward … em … flatling on this bull streak. The longest bull market was from 1987-2000. For this to beat it, it would have to keep going until the year 2021 (Source: http://money.cnn.com/2016/04/29/investing/stocks-2nd-longest-bull-market-ever/). The question I…
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Unfortunately, this is sometimes the line I find myself telling people in poor financial shape. If someone is at the point where they need to stop working, and they haven’t saved much, they’re looking at living a very modest lifestyle. The longer my career goes on, the less I seem to encounter this, but every…
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Last night I had a meeting with some very long time clients of mine. Over the years our families have become close. Apart from having natural chemistry with them, I feel that one of the things that has made our financial advising relationship so successful has been that we have open communication. Our meetings are…
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I’m an arduous follower of developments in technology […]
Marty Allen once wrote, “A study of economics reveals […]
There’s one asset that I’ve personally seen cause people […]
Over the weekend a friend of mine asked me about the impending “Fiscal Cliff”. For those who fancy themselves news hermits, at the end of the year the US will be up against a budget deadline that was set in the Summer of 2011 Debt Ceiling Crisis. In short, if Congress doesn’t do anything it…
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If you are a chart-aficionado like me, then you’ll love Josh Lehner’s article showing how the Great Recession (or The Lesser Depression) compares with other recessions in the US and other Financial Crises throughout the world. I’m copying his charts and adding my own commentary. First of all, how this recession compares to all post…
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The year 2011 brought the first wave of Baby Boomers turning 65. Every single day in America there are 10,000 people turning 65 and this will continue on for the next 18 years. Let’s review what a typical 65-year-old Baby Boomer has experienced the past decade or so. In the late nineties, a typical Baby…
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For years, analysts have been predicting the collapse of the 30 year bond rally. Since 1982, bond prices have generally been rising at a rate without near-term historical precedent. In early 2009, it was widely thought that it was the end of the bond price rally as Treasury rates were pushed to historical lows (yields…
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To many, the mark of the beginning of the financial crisis was on March 16, 2008 when Bear Stearns was sold to Chase at a fire-sale price. The Dow Jones closed that day at 11,951.09 and continued to charge downward for the next year. As I write this, the Dow Jones is at 12,821.25. I…
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Logic and good thinking is a hobby of mine. Conversely, dishonesty, misleading facts and poor thinking are very irritating to me which is why I probably I don’t like most news reporting. I feel like a good value I bring is to help people see wrong assumptions and myths in the world around us, particularly…
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Regular readers of my blog will know that I often riff on the 10 year Treasury rates and how I feel that it spells out a “Safety Bubble”. Many investors have fled there for safety, perhaps under estimating the ugliness of price risk. If you buy a low yield bond and immediately afterward bond yields…
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An annual delight of mine is reading Warren Buffett’s annual letter to shareholders. Buffett has very much influenced me as a financial advisor and how I manage investments. In this year’s letter he writes, “Investing is often described as the process of laying out money now in the expectation of receiving more money in the…
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Very recently I had a conversation with somebody that went something like this: ME: Tell me about the other advisors in your life. THEM: I have a tax advisor, an attorney set up a trust for us and another financial advisor at XYZ Firm [the name has been changed to protect the innocent]. ME: Ah…
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I see financial advising as a mix of many skills. Sometimes it’s that of investor psychologist, but in the nuts and bolts of it I’m a risk manager. A topic I give a lot of thought is, “How long will my clients live?” My biggest goal for my clients is that they never run out…
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I’m being tongue in cheek, but speaking literally of gold and all the gold hype. Before 2000 for about twenty years gold was hardly spoken of in the media as an investment of any interest. Let’s look at some history: From the period of 1934-1971 gold was set at a fixed rate of $35.00 =…
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I believe that the Zen Masters of Investors, the Jedi Knights of Financial Advisors are namely those who have a unique talent at being “in the moment” in a rational an unemotional way. When I’ve talked to money managers and asked them about their mistakes they’ve generally told me that the ones that they should…
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“Europe is unraveling …” or so the story goes 24 hours a day at various levels of intensity. It’s not as though the media has a slight bent toward sensationalism or something – that’s a joke in case you’re from out of town. There’s a very exciting story that is plain on the face of…
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I’ve written at length about why the “safe” investing instruments might not be so safe. There is another nuances to the investing environment right now. When I tell people that I’m a financial advisor or financial planner (I am both, depending on how the stars align I’ll say one or the other when people ask…
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Five years ago (Spring 2007), if you had told me that the 10-year US Treasury Rate would have been 1.39% (as it was briefly last week), I would have asked how big the meteor was that hit the earth. On the one hand, very low interest rates are a good thing because it presents low…
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With my writing I usually try to keep things practical (namely the topics of financial advising, financial management, investments and any issues particular to Denver), but when I veer off of this I try to stay within “cocktail party” conversations (when topics that usually come up in your casual conversations I hope my readers are…
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Logic and good thinking is a hobby of mine. Conversely, dishonesty, misleading facts and poor thinking are very irritating to me which is why I probably I don’t like most news reporting. I feel like a good value I bring is to help people see wrong assumptions and myths in the world around us, particularly…
Read more
The Federal Reserve, along with an average assessment among economists, are publicly setting growth expectations lower than historical averages. Last month, Ben Bernanke said, “There is a reasonable chance, looking at the long run of history, that the U.S. will return to health growth somewhere in the 3% range.” I’m sure that just like me,…
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To many, the mark of the beginning of the financial crisis was on March 16, 2008 when Bear Stearns was sold to Chase at a fire-sale price. The Dow Jones closed that day at 11,951.09 and continued to charge downward for the next year. As I write this, the Dow Jones is at 12,821.25. I…
Read more
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